What I mean by “coincidence” is “the 1979 data was obtained by picking at random from the same kind of population as the 1995 data,
What population is that?
You still haven’t answered a direct question I’ve asked three times—I wish you would shit or get off the pot.
You are not asking meaningful questions, you are not setting up your assumptions clearly. You are asking me, directly, “Is bleen more furfle than blaz, if we assume that quux>baz with a standard deviation of approximately quark and also I haven’t mentioned other assumptions I have made?” Well, I can answer that quite easily: I have no fucking idea, but good luck finding an answer.
While we are complaining about not answering, you have not answered my questions about coin flipping or about lotteries.
you have not answered my questions about coin flipping or about lotteries.
(You didn’t ask a question about coin flipping. The one about lotteries I answered: “I don’t know what you mean”. Just tying up any loose ends that might be interpreted as logical rudeness.)
Answered already—if the 1995 data set exists, then it pretty much has to be a survey of the entire spend of the US Department of Defense on software projects; a census, if you will. (Whether that is plausible or not is a separate question.)
You are not asking meaningful questions
Okay, let me try another one then. Suppose we entered this one into PredictionBook: “At some point before 2020, someone will turn up evidence such as a full-text paper, indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek data set exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies.”
What probability would you assign to that statement?
I’m not trying to set up any assumptions, I’m just trying to assess how plausible the claim is that the 1995 data set genuinely exists, as opposed to its being a memetic copy of the 1979 study. (Independently even of whether this was fraud, plagiarism, a honest mistake, or whatever.)
What probability would you assign to that statement?
Very low. You’re the only one that cares, and government archives are vast. I’ve failed to find versions of many papers and citations I’d like to have in the past.
What population is that?
You are not asking meaningful questions, you are not setting up your assumptions clearly. You are asking me, directly, “Is bleen more furfle than blaz, if we assume that quux>baz with a standard deviation of approximately quark and also I haven’t mentioned other assumptions I have made?” Well, I can answer that quite easily: I have no fucking idea, but good luck finding an answer.
While we are complaining about not answering, you have not answered my questions about coin flipping or about lotteries.
(You didn’t ask a question about coin flipping. The one about lotteries I answered: “I don’t know what you mean”. Just tying up any loose ends that might be interpreted as logical rudeness.)
Answered already—if the 1995 data set exists, then it pretty much has to be a survey of the entire spend of the US Department of Defense on software projects; a census, if you will. (Whether that is plausible or not is a separate question.)
Okay, let me try another one then. Suppose we entered this one into PredictionBook: “At some point before 2020, someone will turn up evidence such as a full-text paper, indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek data set exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies.”
What probability would you assign to that statement?
I’m not trying to set up any assumptions, I’m just trying to assess how plausible the claim is that the 1995 data set genuinely exists, as opposed to its being a memetic copy of the 1979 study. (Independently even of whether this was fraud, plagiarism, a honest mistake, or whatever.)
Very low. You’re the only one that cares, and government archives are vast. I’ve failed to find versions of many papers and citations I’d like to have in the past.