I appreciate your generosity! Given your beliefs, this strategy makes sense to me. I did want to point out some nuance with the Metaculus market market you linked here.
But more importantly, this is a key window of opportunity: transformative AI is coming very quickly
In this market, about 20% of probability mass is in the past, and additional 20% of the probability mass is on dates 10 years or more in the future. I recognize that stating “transformative AI is coming very quickly” doesn’t necessarily imply that the linked market shares your level of confidence, but I think it’s worth pointing out what Metaculus’ distribution currently looks like nonetheless.
I appreciate your generosity! Given your beliefs, this strategy makes sense to me. I did want to point out some nuance with the Metaculus market market you linked here.
In this market, about 20% of probability mass is in the past, and additional 20% of the probability mass is on dates 10 years or more in the future. I recognize that stating “transformative AI is coming very quickly” doesn’t necessarily imply that the linked market shares your level of confidence, but I think it’s worth pointing out what Metaculus’ distribution currently looks like nonetheless.