I wonder if your forecast is 10% because you’re much more pessimistic than I am about AI risk in general or because you have more aggressive AI timelines (or both)?
Both, I think, though looking at your numbers below I think it’s mostly timelines.
I think change might come very quickly, in a wide variety of ways.
if there really is a 10% chance that you’ll be dead two years from now due to an AI-caused catastrophe, it’s worth flagging that this means that AI represents about 95% of your mortality risk in the next two years
Yup. Worth taking seriously! I think it’s somewhat more than 95% of my risk, since I’m not likely to die of a drug overdose (no drugs at all) and don’t drive very much.
To answer this, what are your forecasts that you’ll be dead as a result of a global catastrophe by mid-2028/2030/2032/2035/2040? … 0.01X/0.05X/0.2X/0.6X
This is very off the cuff, but maybe 0.4X/0.8X/0.9X/0.95X? So 10%, 20%, 22%, 24% (and then 25%). Much more front-loaded than yours. My thinking is that AI is moving very quickly, and a large proportion of the risk is in worlds where we don’t have time to build defenses and general societal resilience.
in those 10% of scenarios where you’re imagining where we’re dead in two years due to an AI-caused catastrophe, what kind of AI-caused catastrophe are you imagining?
I think biorisk is a large proportion of the early risks, but accelerating things that don’t spread infectiously (drones, toxins) or massive societal collapse (no food) is also significant.
Both, I think, though looking at your numbers below I think it’s mostly timelines.
I think change might come very quickly, in a wide variety of ways.
Yup. Worth taking seriously! I think it’s somewhat more than 95% of my risk, since I’m not likely to die of a drug overdose (no drugs at all) and don’t drive very much.
This is very off the cuff, but maybe 0.4X/0.8X/0.9X/0.95X? So 10%, 20%, 22%, 24% (and then 25%). Much more front-loaded than yours. My thinking is that AI is moving very quickly, and a large proportion of the risk is in worlds where we don’t have time to build defenses and general societal resilience.
I think biorisk is a large proportion of the early risks, but accelerating things that don’t spread infectiously (drones, toxins) or massive societal collapse (no food) is also significant.
What do you think the AI would do that would cause the societal collapse?