Perhaps if you have a large definition of politicized. To me this applies to many areas where people are overconfident (which happens everywhere). Lots of entrepreneurs, academics, “thought leaders”, and all the villains of Expert Political Judgement.
To give you a very different example, take a tour guide of San Francisco. They probably know way more about SF history than the people they teach. If they happen to be overconfident for different reasons, no one is necessarily checking them. I would imagine that if they ever give tour guides to SF history experts, their stated level of confidence in their statements would be at least somewhat different.
I guess this applies mostly to politicized topics? I also like Robin’s advice to “pull the rope sideways”.
Perhaps if you have a large definition of politicized. To me this applies to many areas where people are overconfident (which happens everywhere). Lots of entrepreneurs, academics, “thought leaders”, and all the villains of Expert Political Judgement.
To give you a very different example, take a tour guide of San Francisco. They probably know way more about SF history than the people they teach. If they happen to be overconfident for different reasons, no one is necessarily checking them. I would imagine that if they ever give tour guides to SF history experts, their stated level of confidence in their statements would be at least somewhat different.