“but, it.… shouldn’t be possible be that confident in something that’s never happened before at all, whatever specific arguments you’ve made!”
I think people vary in what they actually think here and there’s a nontrivial group of people who think something like this phrasing. But, a phrasing that I think captures a wider variety of positions is more like:
“but, it.… shouldn’t be possible be that confident in something that’s never happened before at all, with anything like the current evidence and the sorts of arguments you’re making here.”
(Not sure Rohin would personally quite endorse that phrasing, but I think it’s a reasonable gloss on a wider swath. I’ve updated the post)
Rohin disagree-reacted to my original phrasing of
I think people vary in what they actually think here and there’s a nontrivial group of people who think something like this phrasing. But, a phrasing that I think captures a wider variety of positions is more like:
(Not sure Rohin would personally quite endorse that phrasing, but I think it’s a reasonable gloss on a wider swath. I’ve updated the post)