I found my launch code in my spam folder after the deadline passed. Also I was preoccupied with other things and did not have much time to follow the discussions, or to think about what to do if I had seen the launch code in time. I wonder how many people were in one of these situations (and therefore how much to discount the 125 number by).
One thing I will say is that I’d ideally like to be able to reach an equilibrium where 100s of users every year don’t fire the launch codes, to build up a real tradition of not taking unilateralist action—sitting around and not pressing buttons.
I’m worried about this building a false sense of security, based around a narrative that social dynamics around such buttons are largely similar/transferable so if we can refrain from pressing one kind of button we can also refrain from pressing another kind of button (which in reality may actually be very different both qualitatively and quantitatively).
Even ignoring the above problem, I’m confused why it’s valuable to build up a “real tradition” among LW users, given that the wider unilateralist curse problem that our world faces can’t possibly be solved by LW users having such a tradition.
Even ignoring the above problem, I’m confused why it’s valuable to build up a “real tradition” among LW users, given that the wider unilateralist curse problem that our world faces can’t possibly be solved by LW users having such a tradition.
A few points.
First, I don’t think it’s clear that in the Rationalist / EA community, there is enough reinforcement of this, and I routinely see issues with people “going rogue” and unilaterally engaging in activities that others have warned them would be dangerous, net negative, etc.
Second, it’s valuable even as an exemplar; we should be able to say that there is such a community, and that they are capable of exercising at least this minimal level of restraint.
Third, I think it’s clear that in the next decade the number of people in the Rationalist-sphere that are in actual positions of (relatively significant) power will continue to grow, and we have already seen some such people emerge in government and in the world of NGOs. For AI, in particular, there are many people who have significant influence in making decisions that could significantly affect Humanity’s future. Their active (i.e. passive) participation in this seems likely to at least give them a better understanding of what is needed when they are faced with these choices.
I think these are good points. (I thought of points 2 and 3 myself after writing my comment, but refrained from posting them due to not wanting to accidentally straw-man supporters of the button game/tradition, in case they had stronger arguments in mind.) I’m curious about examples of 1, if you have any in mind that you can share.
Re: examples of point #1, I don’t think that shaming in this forum is productive—it’s polarizing and stigmatizing rather than helpful. But I do know of several individuals and a couple organizations which are guilty of this, each repeatedly.
I do think that people should be more willing to personally / privately respond if someone does something, and I have done so in several specific cases where someone decided on a unilateralist approach that I thought was damaging.
I found my launch code in my spam folder after the deadline passed. Also I was preoccupied with other things and did not have much time to follow the discussions, or to think about what to do if I had seen the launch code in time. I wonder how many people were in one of these situations (and therefore how much to discount the 125 number by).
I’m worried about this building a false sense of security, based around a narrative that social dynamics around such buttons are largely similar/transferable so if we can refrain from pressing one kind of button we can also refrain from pressing another kind of button (which in reality may actually be very different both qualitatively and quantitatively).
Even ignoring the above problem, I’m confused why it’s valuable to build up a “real tradition” among LW users, given that the wider unilateralist curse problem that our world faces can’t possibly be solved by LW users having such a tradition.
A few points.
First, I don’t think it’s clear that in the Rationalist / EA community, there is enough reinforcement of this, and I routinely see issues with people “going rogue” and unilaterally engaging in activities that others have warned them would be dangerous, net negative, etc.
Second, it’s valuable even as an exemplar; we should be able to say that there is such a community, and that they are capable of exercising at least this minimal level of restraint.
Third, I think it’s clear that in the next decade the number of people in the Rationalist-sphere that are in actual positions of (relatively significant) power will continue to grow, and we have already seen some such people emerge in government and in the world of NGOs. For AI, in particular, there are many people who have significant influence in making decisions that could significantly affect Humanity’s future. Their active (i.e. passive) participation in this seems likely to at least give them a better understanding of what is needed when they are faced with these choices.
I think these are good points. (I thought of points 2 and 3 myself after writing my comment, but refrained from posting them due to not wanting to accidentally straw-man supporters of the button game/tradition, in case they had stronger arguments in mind.) I’m curious about examples of 1, if you have any in mind that you can share.
Re: examples of point #1, I don’t think that shaming in this forum is productive—it’s polarizing and stigmatizing rather than helpful. But I do know of several individuals and a couple organizations which are guilty of this, each repeatedly.
I do think that people should be more willing to personally / privately respond if someone does something, and I have done so in several specific cases where someone decided on a unilateralist approach that I thought was damaging.