I think there are just very few people for whom this is a compelling argument. I don’t think government are coming anywhere close to explicitly making this calculation. I think some people in labs are maybe making this decision but they aren’t actually the target audience for this.
I agree that governments aren’t coming anywhere close to making this calculation at this point. I mean they very well might once they’ve actually thought about the issue. I think it will depend a lot on their collective distribution of p(doom). I’d think they’d push ahead if they could convince themselves it was lower than maybe 20% or thereabouts. I’d love to be convinced they would be more cautious.
Of course I think it very much depends on who is in the relevant governments at that time. I think that the issue could play a large role in elections, and that might help a lot.
I think there are just very few people for whom this is a compelling argument. I don’t think government are coming anywhere close to explicitly making this calculation. I think some people in labs are maybe making this decision but they aren’t actually the target audience for this.
I agree that governments aren’t coming anywhere close to making this calculation at this point. I mean they very well might once they’ve actually thought about the issue. I think it will depend a lot on their collective distribution of p(doom). I’d think they’d push ahead if they could convince themselves it was lower than maybe 20% or thereabouts. I’d love to be convinced they would be more cautious.
Of course I think it very much depends on who is in the relevant governments at that time. I think that the issue could play a large role in elections, and that might help a lot.