The post is specifically about “globally controlled takeoff”, in which multiple governments have agreed to locate their GPUs in locations that are easy for each other to inspect.
There’s a spectrum between “Literally all countries agree to consolidate and monitor compute”, “US/UK/China do it”, “US/UK/Europe agree to do it among themselves”, “US does it just for itself” and “individual orgs are just being idk a bit careful and a bit cooperative in an ad-hoc fashion.”
I call the latter end of the spectrum “ad hoc semi-controlled semi-slowed takeof” at the beginning of the post. If we get something somewhere in the middle, seems probably an improvement.
I thought I was addressing the premise of your post: the world is ready to do serious restrictions on AI research: do they do shutdown or controlled takeoff?
I guess maybe I’m missing what’s important about the physical consolidation vs other methods of inspection and enforcement.
I think my scenario conforms to all of the gears you mention. It could be seen as adding another gear: the incentives/psychologies of government decision-makers.
The post is specifically about “globally controlled takeoff”, in which multiple governments have agreed to locate their GPUs in locations that are easy for each other to inspect.
There’s a spectrum between “Literally all countries agree to consolidate and monitor compute”, “US/UK/China do it”, “US/UK/Europe agree to do it among themselves”, “US does it just for itself” and “individual orgs are just being idk a bit careful and a bit cooperative in an ad-hoc fashion.”
I call the latter end of the spectrum “ad hoc semi-controlled semi-slowed takeof” at the beginning of the post. If we get something somewhere in the middle, seems probably an improvement.
I thought I was addressing the premise of your post: the world is ready to do serious restrictions on AI research: do they do shutdown or controlled takeoff?
I guess maybe I’m missing what’s important about the physical consolidation vs other methods of inspection and enforcement.
I think my scenario conforms to all of the gears you mention. It could be seen as adding another gear: the incentives/psychologies of government decision-makers.