AIs don’t end up scheming (as in, in the vast majority of contexts) until somewhat after the point where AIs dominate top human experts at ~everything because scheming ends up being unnatural in the relevant paradigm (after moderate status quo iteration). I guess I put around 60% on this.
I would love to read a elucidation of what leads you to think this.
I would love to read a elucidation of what leads you to think this.