If an AI doomer bets $100 to forecast that a moratorium will pass, then they’ve created two incentives:
An incentive of $100 for themselves to make the moratorium pass.
A bounty of $100 for anybody else to block the moratorium from passing.
Notably, they’ve locked up their $100 of capital for the duration of the forecast, which is now unavailable to support their efforts.
These “put your money where your mouth is” arguments are turning into an unbelievably stupid form of rhetoric. Fortunately, they’re so outlandish that they only register in extremely online aging libertarian land.
AI slowdowns are popular and common sense policies among American voters.
Don’t get caught up in debating the astroturfing pundits! They are not worth your time.
I mean it harsh. At worst, it’s a cheap and surprisingly effective morale-degrading confusion tactic aimed directly at undermining people working on existential risk.
If an AI doomer bets $100 to forecast that a moratorium will pass, then they’ve created two incentives:
An incentive of $100 for themselves to make the moratorium pass.
A bounty of $100 for anybody else to block the moratorium from passing.
Notably, they’ve locked up their $100 of capital for the duration of the forecast, which is now unavailable to support their efforts.
These “put your money where your mouth is” arguments are turning into an unbelievably stupid form of rhetoric. Fortunately, they’re so outlandish that they only register in extremely online aging libertarian land.
AI slowdowns are popular and common sense policies among American voters.
Don’t get caught up in debating the astroturfing pundits! They are not worth your time.
Seems harsh. At worst they are a misguided in a way that’s subtle enough that intelligent people still get the wrong answer.
I mean it harsh. At worst, it’s a cheap and surprisingly effective morale-degrading confusion tactic aimed directly at undermining people working on existential risk.