A chance rate isn’t the right thing to compare to, I think. It would have to be randomly generated predictions, wouldn’t it? But any non-expert human will do much better than that, since basic knowledge such as that the Earth will stay in orbit around the sun rules out most of these.
I think the right thing to compare to is if he did significantly better than I would have. Which he probably did, which means I can improve my vision of the future by reading Kurzweil.
A chance rate isn’t the right thing to compare to, I think. It would have to be randomly generated predictions, wouldn’t it? But any non-expert human will do much better than that, since basic knowledge such as that the Earth will stay in orbit around the sun rules out most of these.
I think the right thing to compare to is if he did significantly better than I would have. Which he probably did, which means I can improve my vision of the future by reading Kurzweil.
How do you know how you would have done? have you tried?