It is certainly true that Dario Amodei’s early predictions of AI writing most of the code, as in 90% of all code within 3-6 months after March 11. This was not a good prediction, because the previous generation definitely wasn’t ready and even if it had been that’s not how diffusion works, and has been proven definitively false, it’s more like 40% of all code generated by AI and 20%-25% of what goes into production.
I think it was a bad prediction, yes, but mainly because it was ambiguous about the meaning of “writes 90% of the code”, it’s still not clear if he was claiming at the time that this would be the case at Anthropic (where I could see that being the case) or in the wider economy. So a bad prediction because imprecise, but not necessarily because it was wrong.
I think it was a bad prediction, yes, but mainly because it was ambiguous about the meaning of “writes 90% of the code”, it’s still not clear if he was claiming at the time that this would be the case at Anthropic (where I could see that being the case) or in the wider economy. So a bad prediction because imprecise, but not necessarily because it was wrong.