I tend to intuitively strongly agree with James Miller’s point (hence me upvoting it).
There is a strong case to make that a TAI would tend to spook economic agents which create products/services that could easily be done by a TAI.
For an anology think about a student who wants to decide on what xe (I prefer using the neopronoun “xe” than “singular they” as it is less confusing) wants to study for xir future job prospects: if that student thinks that a TAI might do something much faster/better than xem in the future (translating one language into another, accounting, even coding, etc...) that student might be spooked into thinking “oh wait maybe I should think twice before investing my time/energy/money into studying these.”, so basically a TAI could create lot of uncertainty/doubt/… for economic actors and in most cases uncertainty/doubt/… have an inhibiting effect on investment decisions and hence on interest rates, don’t they?
I am very willing to be convinced of the opposite and I see a lot of downvotes for James Miller hypothesis but not many people so far arguing against it.
Could someone please who downvoted/disagrees with that argument kindly make the argument against James Miller hypothesis? I would very much appreciated that and then maybe change my mind as a result but as it stands I tend to strongly agree with James Miller well stated point.
Hello,
I tend to intuitively strongly agree with James Miller’s point (hence me upvoting it).
There is a strong case to make that a TAI would tend to spook economic agents which create products/services that could easily be done by a TAI.
For an anology think about a student who wants to decide on what xe (I prefer using the neopronoun “xe” than “singular they” as it is less confusing) wants to study for xir future job prospects: if that student thinks that a TAI might do something much faster/better than xem in the future (translating one language into another, accounting, even coding, etc...) that student might be spooked into thinking “oh wait maybe I should think twice before investing my time/energy/money into studying these.”, so basically a TAI could create lot of uncertainty/doubt/… for economic actors and in most cases uncertainty/doubt/… have an inhibiting effect on investment decisions and hence on interest rates, don’t they?
I am very willing to be convinced of the opposite and I see a lot of downvotes for James Miller hypothesis but not many people so far arguing against it.
Could someone please who downvoted/disagrees with that argument kindly make the argument against James Miller hypothesis? I would very much appreciated that and then maybe change my mind as a result but as it stands I tend to strongly agree with James Miller well stated point.