Probabilities 1 and 2 are correlated, so you can’t multiply them.
Although, by multiplying them, you got a probability of 0.6, and the Manifold market on ASI existing by 2035 (34 traders) is trading at ~40%. So if the Manifold market is correct, then it’s true that the existential risk from ASI before 2035 is ≤0.5.
Regardless, technically the post author claimed that the probability for existential risk from ASI before 2045 was ≥0.5, and only said that it’s likely that better-than-human-AI would exist by 2035.
Well, we have surveys like this one indicating that they don’t take into account the likelihood of an existential catastrophe. It seems to me that many forecasters are thinking about a trajectory that could lead to the creation of ASI with a certain probability in a certain year. But these models can be disrupted due to other factors such as wars, sanctions, restrictions on research, social upheaval, and so on.
Probabilities 1 and 2 are correlated, so you can’t multiply them.
Although, by multiplying them, you got a probability of 0.6, and the Manifold market on ASI existing by 2035 (34 traders) is trading at ~40%. So if the Manifold market is correct, then it’s true that the existential risk from ASI before 2035 is ≤0.5.
Regardless, technically the post author claimed that the probability for existential risk from ASI before 2045 was ≥0.5, and only said that it’s likely that better-than-human-AI would exist by 2035.
Well, we have surveys like this one indicating that they don’t take into account the likelihood of an existential catastrophe.
It seems to me that many forecasters are thinking about a trajectory that could lead to the creation of ASI with a certain probability in a certain year. But these models can be disrupted due to other factors such as wars, sanctions, restrictions on research, social upheaval, and so on.