Well, we have surveys like this one indicating that they don’t take into account the likelihood of an existential catastrophe. It seems to me that many forecasters are thinking about a trajectory that could lead to the creation of ASI with a certain probability in a certain year. But these models can be disrupted due to other factors such as wars, sanctions, restrictions on research, social upheaval, and so on.
Well, we have surveys like this one indicating that they don’t take into account the likelihood of an existential catastrophe.
It seems to me that many forecasters are thinking about a trajectory that could lead to the creation of ASI with a certain probability in a certain year. But these models can be disrupted due to other factors such as wars, sanctions, restrictions on research, social upheaval, and so on.