Yes, this lines up with current average prices for solar at time of production vs firmed. We’re only finally starting to see firmed green power prices get covered much even by experts, now that penetration rates are rising and companies are realizing they made big noises about 2030 and 2050 goals before having actually made any kind of plan to achieve them.
But, unless you’re at Kardashev-1 levels of power demand (we’re not), why would you try to run a grid on all solar? Who is proposing doing that, even in the world’s sunniest regions? The most cost-effective way to decarbonize involves a locally-optimized combo of sources, some mix potentially including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, biomass, gasified MSW, maybe wave and tidal if they start making more sense, whatever is available.
Also consider that as EVs continue to grow, electricity demand increases and changes the demand curve, but any place that actually had the foresight to plan for this will see it is “Now we’re going to have a large percentage of homes with a 2-day battery in their garage, and the utility pays no capex for it,” either as DER (V2G) or as dispatchable demand with smart charging. Similarly, as we electrify more industrial processes, there’s a lot more market for load-shifting and efficiency-increasing technologies like phase change materials, thermal storage and heat recovery, air and ground source heat pumps, and so on that all create more avenues to increase grid resilience.
Unfortunately, from a regulatory perspective, almost nowhere has set themselves up to be able to manage or incentivize this anywhere close to intelligently, and almost no one is sufficiently empowered to convene and negotiate with the full set of stakeholders needed to fix that. And even internally, companies often cannot motivate themselves to take even very obvious high-ROI energy and carbon saving measures (like duct sealing) if it involves even the slightest short-term inconvenience.
Also, I think these kinds of models often assume a strong desire to get non-renewable power down to zero very soon, which I think is in many ways a mistake. For context, right now I live in an RV. When I’m off grid, I have 1050W of solar, ~10kWh of batteries, a 3kW hybrid inverter, and a 5.5kW gasoline generator. In spring and fall I can easily go a week without needing shore power or the generator. In summer and winter, I can’t, so I use the generator a bit each dayif I’m off grid, and manage demand as best I can, and stay on-grid more often. But it would make no sense, financially or (at this point) environmentally, to try to add enough solar or batteries to not need anything else. Instead I’d first replace my AC and supplement my furnace with mini-split heat pumps. Then when I become stationary again (probably soon) I’m considering getting a wood gasifier generator. And I’m assuming my next car will be electric, and hoping maybe by then I’ll be able to make use of that extra storage capacity intelligently. I can certainly load-shift much of my demand. And after that if I’m still getting 10% of my much-reduced electricity needs from fossil fuels, it’s not really urgent to fix that. If you reduce the growth rate of a cumulative problem by 90%, you now have 10x longer to fix the rest.
I have 1050W of solar, ~10kWh of batteries, a 3kW hybrid inverter, and a 5.5kW gasoline generator. In spring and fall I can easily go a week without needing shore power or the generator. In summer and winter, I can’t
Sorry naive question, I get that you can’t do it in winter, but why not summer? Isn’t that when solar peaks?
These are very reasonable questions that I learned about the hard way camping in the desert two years ago. I do not recommend boondocking in central Wyoming in August.
First, because when you live in an aluminum box with 1″ thick R7 walls you need more air conditioning in summer than that much solar can provide. It doesn’t help that RV air conditioners are designed to be small and light and cheap (most people only use them a handful of days a year), so they’re much less efficient than home air conditioners, even window units. I have 2x 15k BTU/hr AC units, and can only run one at a time on my inverter (they use 1400-1800W each). On very hot days (>90-95F) I need both at least some of the time.
Second, because the conversion efficiency of silicon PV falls at high temperatures, so hot and sunny summer days are actually not my days of peak production.
Third, my batteries and inverter are unfortunately but unavoidably placed in a closed compartment with limited airflow covered in black painted aluminum. And consumer grade inverters are not great, there’s something like 15-20% loss (heat generation). That means on hot days it’s sometimes challenging to keep these from overheating, and running the generator to give the inverter a break while the batteries recharge can be helpful.
Fourth, in addition to low solar production in winter, electricity consumption in an RV is higher than you might expect in cold weather. The propane furnace draws electric power for the fan. Since the plumbing is exposed to air, you need electric tank and line heaters for the fresh water tank, waste water tanks, and water lines to avoid freezing. I also use electric tank warmers for my propane tanks, since when the weather drops below freezing a partially-empty 20 lb tank can’t supply the steady 30k BTU/hr the furnace needs (it normally relies on ambient heat to boil off liquid propane, and at low T in a small tank that doesn’t happen fast enough, which can cut supply and even freeze the regulator). On a cold winter day, I’m probably drawing an average of 300-600 watts just to keep the plumbing and furnace working well. Granted, not many people winter in an RV in Massachusetts, I’m an unusual case. I wouldn’t have this problem in most of the Southwest or Florida where other RVers go.
Yes, this lines up with current average prices for solar at time of production vs firmed. We’re only finally starting to see firmed green power prices get covered much even by experts, now that penetration rates are rising and companies are realizing they made big noises about 2030 and 2050 goals before having actually made any kind of plan to achieve them.
But, unless you’re at Kardashev-1 levels of power demand (we’re not), why would you try to run a grid on all solar? Who is proposing doing that, even in the world’s sunniest regions? The most cost-effective way to decarbonize involves a locally-optimized combo of sources, some mix potentially including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, biomass, gasified MSW, maybe wave and tidal if they start making more sense, whatever is available.
Also consider that as EVs continue to grow, electricity demand increases and changes the demand curve, but any place that actually had the foresight to plan for this will see it is “Now we’re going to have a large percentage of homes with a 2-day battery in their garage, and the utility pays no capex for it,” either as DER (V2G) or as dispatchable demand with smart charging. Similarly, as we electrify more industrial processes, there’s a lot more market for load-shifting and efficiency-increasing technologies like phase change materials, thermal storage and heat recovery, air and ground source heat pumps, and so on that all create more avenues to increase grid resilience.
Unfortunately, from a regulatory perspective, almost nowhere has set themselves up to be able to manage or incentivize this anywhere close to intelligently, and almost no one is sufficiently empowered to convene and negotiate with the full set of stakeholders needed to fix that. And even internally, companies often cannot motivate themselves to take even very obvious high-ROI energy and carbon saving measures (like duct sealing) if it involves even the slightest short-term inconvenience.
Also, I think these kinds of models often assume a strong desire to get non-renewable power down to zero very soon, which I think is in many ways a mistake. For context, right now I live in an RV. When I’m off grid, I have 1050W of solar, ~10kWh of batteries, a 3kW hybrid inverter, and a 5.5kW gasoline generator. In spring and fall I can easily go a week without needing shore power or the generator. In summer and winter, I can’t, so I use the generator a bit each dayif I’m off grid, and manage demand as best I can, and stay on-grid more often. But it would make no sense, financially or (at this point) environmentally, to try to add enough solar or batteries to not need anything else. Instead I’d first replace my AC and supplement my furnace with mini-split heat pumps. Then when I become stationary again (probably soon) I’m considering getting a wood gasifier generator. And I’m assuming my next car will be electric, and hoping maybe by then I’ll be able to make use of that extra storage capacity intelligently. I can certainly load-shift much of my demand. And after that if I’m still getting 10% of my much-reduced electricity needs from fossil fuels, it’s not really urgent to fix that. If you reduce the growth rate of a cumulative problem by 90%, you now have 10x longer to fix the rest.
Sorry naive question, I get that you can’t do it in winter, but why not summer? Isn’t that when solar peaks?
These are very reasonable questions that I learned about the hard way camping in the desert two years ago. I do not recommend boondocking in central Wyoming in August.
First, because when you live in an aluminum box with 1″ thick R7 walls you need more air conditioning in summer than that much solar can provide. It doesn’t help that RV air conditioners are designed to be small and light and cheap (most people only use them a handful of days a year), so they’re much less efficient than home air conditioners, even window units. I have 2x 15k BTU/hr AC units, and can only run one at a time on my inverter (they use 1400-1800W each). On very hot days (>90-95F) I need both at least some of the time.
Second, because the conversion efficiency of silicon PV falls at high temperatures, so hot and sunny summer days are actually not my days of peak production.
Third, my batteries and inverter are unfortunately but unavoidably placed in a closed compartment with limited airflow covered in black painted aluminum. And consumer grade inverters are not great, there’s something like 15-20% loss (heat generation). That means on hot days it’s sometimes challenging to keep these from overheating, and running the generator to give the inverter a break while the batteries recharge can be helpful.
Fourth, in addition to low solar production in winter, electricity consumption in an RV is higher than you might expect in cold weather. The propane furnace draws electric power for the fan. Since the plumbing is exposed to air, you need electric tank and line heaters for the fresh water tank, waste water tanks, and water lines to avoid freezing. I also use electric tank warmers for my propane tanks, since when the weather drops below freezing a partially-empty 20 lb tank can’t supply the steady 30k BTU/hr the furnace needs (it normally relies on ambient heat to boil off liquid propane, and at low T in a small tank that doesn’t happen fast enough, which can cut supply and even freeze the regulator). On a cold winter day, I’m probably drawing an average of 300-600 watts just to keep the plumbing and furnace working well. Granted, not many people winter in an RV in Massachusetts, I’m an unusual case. I wouldn’t have this problem in most of the Southwest or Florida where other RVers go.
(I really like how gears-y your comment is, many thanks and strong-upvoted.)
AC demand, most likely