the critical period is likely to be at most 5 years, not 10
Come on. Yes, timelines appear to be on the shorter side, but clearly it would be extreme hubris to stop planning around >5 year timelines! That really seems very dogmatic to me.
My median timeline is ~7 years until truly transformative AI. And I have quite a lot of probability on things longer than that!
On the meta level: why are there this many net upvotes and agreement votes for planning horizons of “at most 5 years”? This updates me towards thinking that some aspect of collective epistemics is notably worse than I had been tracking.
My guess is most of the agree-votes are for the other parts of the comment. It’s always been tricky to disaggregate things like this (which is why we don’t have agree-voting on posts).
Come on. Yes, timelines appear to be on the shorter side, but clearly it would be extreme hubris to stop planning around >5 year timelines! That really seems very dogmatic to me.
My median timeline is ~7 years until truly transformative AI. And I have quite a lot of probability on things longer than that!
On the meta level: why are there this many net upvotes and agreement votes for planning horizons of “at most 5 years”? This updates me towards thinking that some aspect of collective epistemics is notably worse than I had been tracking.
My guess is most of the agree-votes are for the other parts of the comment. It’s always been tricky to disaggregate things like this (which is why we don’t have agree-voting on posts).