I think you’re taking the formal adoption of FDTs too literally here, or treating it as if it were the AGI case, as if humans were able to self-modify into machines fully capable of honoring commitments and then making arbitrary ones, or something?
Actually, my worry is kind of in the opposite direction, namely that we don’t really know how FDT can or should be applied in humans, but someone with a vague understanding of FDT might “adopt FDT” and then use it to handwavingly justify some behavior or policy. For example someone might think, “FDT says that we should think as little as possible before mentally making commitments, so that’s what I’ll do.”
Or take the example of your OP, in which you invoke FDT, but don’t explain in any mathematical detail how FDT implies the conclusions you’re seemingly drawing from it.
Or to bring it back to the thing I actually said in more detail, Biden seems like he’s using something close to pure CDT. So someone using commitments can get Biden to do quite a lot, and thus they make lots of crazy commitments.
Here too, I suspect you may have only a vague understanding of the difference between CDT and FDT. Resisting threats (“crazy commitments”) is often rational even under CDT, if you’re in a repeated game (i.e., being observed by players you may face in the future). I would guess your disagreement with Biden is probably better explained by something else besides FDT vs CDT.
ETA: I also get a feeling that you have a biased perspective on the object level. If “someone using commitments can get Biden to do quite a lot”, why couldn’t Putin get Biden to promise not to admit Ukraine into NATO?
Actually, my worry is kind of in the opposite direction, namely that we don’t really know how FDT can or should be applied in humans, but someone with a vague understanding of FDT might “adopt FDT” and then use it to handwavingly justify some behavior or policy. For example someone might think, “FDT says that we should think as little as possible before mentally making commitments, so that’s what I’ll do.”
Or take the example of your OP, in which you invoke FDT, but don’t explain in any mathematical detail how FDT implies the conclusions you’re seemingly drawing from it.
Here too, I suspect you may have only a vague understanding of the difference between CDT and FDT. Resisting threats (“crazy commitments”) is often rational even under CDT, if you’re in a repeated game (i.e., being observed by players you may face in the future). I would guess your disagreement with Biden is probably better explained by something else besides FDT vs CDT.
ETA: I also get a feeling that you have a biased perspective on the object level. If “someone using commitments can get Biden to do quite a lot”, why couldn’t Putin get Biden to promise not to admit Ukraine into NATO?