Deutsch’s objection is not to Bayes’ theorem itself but to the idea that updating numbers is what science is about. In his Popperian picture, knowledge grows through explanatory creativity and critical elimination, and the notion that evidence confirms or raises the probability of a sweeping theory is, literally, impossible.
Deutsch’s objection is not to Bayes’ theorem itself but to the idea that updating numbers is what science is about. In his Popperian picture, knowledge grows through explanatory creativity and critical elimination, and the notion that evidence confirms or raises the probability of a sweeping theory is, literally, impossible.
Partly. But you can use Bayes to support induction, which is another problem for Popperians.