One error people can make when thinking about takeoff speeds is assuming that because we are in a world with some gradual takeoff, it now means we are in a “slow takeoff” world. I think this can lead us to make some mistakes in our strategy. I usually prefer thinking in the following frame: “is there any point in the future where we’ll have a step function that prevents us from doing slow takeoff-like interventions for preventing x-risk?”
In other words, we should be careful to assume that some “slow takeoff” doesn’t have an abrupt change after a couple of years. You might get some gradual takeoff where slow takeoff interventions work and then...BAM...orders of magnitude of more progress. Let’s be careful not to abandon fast takeoff-like interventions as soon as we think we are in a slow-takeoff world.
A frame for thinking about takeoff
One error people can make when thinking about takeoff speeds is assuming that because we are in a world with some gradual takeoff, it now means we are in a “slow takeoff” world. I think this can lead us to make some mistakes in our strategy. I usually prefer thinking in the following frame: “is there any point in the future where we’ll have a step function that prevents us from doing slow takeoff-like interventions for preventing x-risk?”
In other words, we should be careful to assume that some “slow takeoff” doesn’t have an abrupt change after a couple of years. You might get some gradual takeoff where slow takeoff interventions work and then...BAM...orders of magnitude of more progress. Let’s be careful not to abandon fast takeoff-like interventions as soon as we think we are in a slow-takeoff world.