There’s this Twitter thread that I saved a while ago that is no longer up. It’s about generating ideas for startups. However, I think the insight from the thread carries over well enough to thinking about ideas for Accelerating Alignment. Particularly, being aware of what is on the cusp of being usable so that you can take advantage of it as soon as becomes available (even do the work beforehand).
For example, we are surprisingly close to human-level text-to-speech (have a look at Apple’s new model for audiobooks). Open-source models or APIs might come out as soon as later this year or next year.
It’s worth doing some thinking about how TTS (and other new tech) will fit into current workflows as well as how it will interact with future possible tools also on the cusp.
Paul Buchheit says that people at the leading edge of a rapidly changing field “live in the future.” Combine that with Pirsig and you get:
Live in the future, then build what’s missing.
...
Once you’re living in the future in some respect, the way to notice startup ideas is to look for things that seem to be missing. If you’re really at the leading edge of a rapidly changing field, there will be things that are obviously missing. What won’t be obvious is that they’re startup ideas. So if you want to find startup ideas, don’t merely turn on the filter “What’s missing?” Also turn off every other filter, particularly “Could this be a big company?” There’s plenty of time to apply that test later. But if you’re thinking about that initially, it may not only filter out lots of good ideas, but also cause you to focus on bad ones.
Most things that are missing will take some time to see. You almost have to trick yourself into seeing the ideas around you.
Anyway, here’s the Twitter thread I saved (it’s very much in the startup world of advice, but just keep in mind how the spirit of it transfers to Accelerating Alignment):
How to come up with new startup ideas
I’ve helped 750+ startup founders. I always try to ask: “How did you come up with your idea?” Here are their answers:
First, they most commonly say: “Solve your own problems. Meaning, live on the edge of tech and see what issues you encounter. Then build a startup to solve it.” I agree, and I love that. But it’s not the whole answer you want. Where do these problems actually come from?
I’ll start by defining what a good startup idea looks like to me. It offers a meaningful benefit, such as:
A big reduction of an intense/frequent frustration
A big reduction in the cost of an expensive problem
A big increase in how entertaining/emotional a thing is I call these 3x ideas—ideas compelling enough to overcome the friction to try ’em.
Btw, some people say startups must be “10x better to succeed.” This is misleading. For an app to be 10x better, than, say, Uber, it would have to straight up teleport you to your destination.
Examples of real 3x ideas:
Dropbox/Box: Cheaply share files without coordination or friction
Instacart: Get groceries delivered—without a big cost premium
Uber: Get a cab 3x faster, in 3x more locations, and for cheaper
So, where do these 3x ideas come from? From the creation of new infrastructure—either technological or legal. I keep an eye on this. For example:
1. New technologies
Fast mobile processors
High-capacity batteries
Cryptocurrency architecture
VR
2. Changes in the law
Legalization of marijuana
Patents expiring (And 1,000 more infrastructure examples.)
When new technological/legal infrastructure emerges, startups pounce to productize the new 3x possibilities. Those possibilities fall into categories:
1. Cost reductions:
Cheaper broadband enables cloud storage (Dropbox)
Cheaper batteries enables electric cars (Tesla)
2. Better functionality:
Smartphones and 3G spawned the mobile era
3. Brand new categories:
The legalization of marijuana spawned weed stores and weed delivery apps
As the CEO of Box wrote: “We bet on four mega-trends that would shift the power to cloud: faster internet, cheaper compute and storage, mobile, and better browsers. Even so, we underestimated the scale of each tailwind. Always bet on the mega-trends.”
So takeaway number one is that new infrastructure spawns startups. But, we’re not done. For those ideas to survive in the market, I believe you need another criterion: Cultural acceptance. Society has to be ready for you:
Here are startups that became possible through changes in societal behavior.
1. Pop culture making behaviors less cool:
Cigarettes go out of style, so we get nicotine and vaping
Heavy drinking goes out of style, so we get low-alcohol seltzers
2. Mobile apps making it more normal to trust strangers:
The rise of Uber, Airbnb, Tinder, and couchsurfing better acclimated society to trusting people they’ve only met over the Internet.
This next part is important:
Notice how cultural acceptance results from (1) new media narratives and (2) the integration of technology into our lives, which changes behaviors. And note how those startup ideas were already feasible for a while, but couldn’t happen *until cultural acceptance was possible.*
Implication: Study changes in infrastructure plus shifts in cultural acceptance to identify what’s newly possible in your market. Here’s an example:
1. Uber saw that widespread smartphone adoption with accurate GPS data made it possible to replace taxis with gig workers. Cultural acceptance was needed here—because it was unorthodox to step into a stranger’s car and entrust them with your safety.
2. Hims saw that the Propecia hair loss drug’s patent was expiring, and capitalized on it by selling it via an online-first brand. Not much cultural acceptance was needed here since people were already buying the drug.
Okay, so let’s turn all this into a framework. Here’s just one way to find startup ideas.
Step 1: Spot upcoming infrastructure:
Subscribe to industry blogs/podcasts, try products, read congressional bills, read research, and talk to scientists and engineers.
Step 2: Determine if market entry is now possible:
As you’re scanning the infrastructure, look for an emergent 3x benefit that your startup could capture.
Step 3: Explore second-order ideas too:
If other startups capture a 3x idea before you do, that may be okay.
First, there may be room for more than one (Uber and Lyft, Google and Bing, Microsoft Teams and Slack).
Second, when another startup captures a 3x benefit, it typically produces many downstream 2x ideas. This is a key point.
For example, now that millions use 3x products like Slack, Zoom, and Uber, what tools could make them less expensive, more reliable, more collaborative?
Tons. So many downstream ideas emerge. 2x ideas may be smaller in scale but can still be huge startups. And they might be partially pre-validated.
To recap: One way to find startup ideas is to study infrastructure (3x ideas) and observe what emerges from startups that tackle that infrastructure (2x ideas).
On generating ideas for Accelerating Alignment
There’s this Twitter thread that I saved a while ago that is no longer up. It’s about generating ideas for startups. However, I think the insight from the thread carries over well enough to thinking about ideas for Accelerating Alignment. Particularly, being aware of what is on the cusp of being usable so that you can take advantage of it as soon as becomes available (even do the work beforehand).
For example, we are surprisingly close to human-level text-to-speech (have a look at Apple’s new model for audiobooks). Open-source models or APIs might come out as soon as later this year or next year.
It’s worth doing some thinking about how TTS (and other new tech) will fit into current workflows as well as how it will interact with future possible tools also on the cusp.
Of course, Paul Graham writes about this stuff too:
Anyway, here’s the Twitter thread I saved (it’s very much in the startup world of advice, but just keep in mind how the spirit of it transfers to Accelerating Alignment):