I’d probably lay 3:1 against either voice-interface-usable-on-a-crowded-train or non-touch input and non-visual output via a brain link becoming common (say, 1% of smartphone users) by end of 2027, or 1:1 against for end of 2029.
These do not seem like conservative estimates. For a technology like this I think a spread to almost everyone (with a smartphone) is pretty likely given a spread to 1% of users. At least, from a technological perspective (which seems to be what your comment is arguing from), spreading to 1% of users seems like the real hard part here.
They’re not intended to be conservative, they’re an attempt to operationalize my current beliefs. Offering 3:1 means I give a very significant probability (up to 25%) to the other side. That’s pretty huge for such a large change in software-interaction modality.
Agreed that being usable enough that 1% of users prefer it for at least some of their daily use is the hard part. Once it’s well-known and good enough for the early adopters, then making it the standard/default is just a matter of time—the technology can be predicted to win when it gets there.
I don’t honestly know how much Raemon’s (or your) beliefs differ from mine, in terms of timeline and likelihood. I didn’t intend to fully contradict anything he said, just to acknowledge that I think the most likely major change is still pretty iffy.
These do not seem like conservative estimates. For a technology like this I think a spread to almost everyone (with a smartphone) is pretty likely given a spread to 1% of users. At least, from a technological perspective (which seems to be what your comment is arguing from), spreading to 1% of users seems like the real hard part here.
They’re not intended to be conservative, they’re an attempt to operationalize my current beliefs. Offering 3:1 means I give a very significant probability (up to 25%) to the other side. That’s pretty huge for such a large change in software-interaction modality.
Agreed that being usable enough that 1% of users prefer it for at least some of their daily use is the hard part. Once it’s well-known and good enough for the early adopters, then making it the standard/default is just a matter of time—the technology can be predicted to win when it gets there.
I don’t honestly know how much Raemon’s (or your) beliefs differ from mine, in terms of timeline and likelihood. I didn’t intend to fully contradict anything he said, just to acknowledge that I think the most likely major change is still pretty iffy.
Ok, I guess I got confused by your calling it a “Hard Problem”.