I worry a lot that the binary “AI-written” filter is a completely different dimension from what we actually want: a quality indicator for things that haven’t gotten many votes yet.
I do think it may straightforwardly be possible to build an AI model that predicts “karma within first 2 weeks” or something with reasonable accuracy, and that that’d be an improvement over status quo for determining post visibility for like the first 6 hours (maybe we gradually fade from “AI predicted karma” to “real karma” continuously over some period).
Even if such a model was perfectly accurate, I think that would have to introduce distortions because visibility impacts if and how people vote. The karma a post earns when it is displayed based on current karma will be different from the karma a post earns when it is displayed based on predicted ~final karma.
I do think it may straightforwardly be possible to build an AI model that predicts “karma within first 2 weeks” or something with reasonable accuracy, and that that’d be an improvement over status quo for determining post visibility for like the first 6 hours (maybe we gradually fade from “AI predicted karma” to “real karma” continuously over some period).
Even if such a model was perfectly accurate, I think that would have to introduce distortions because visibility impacts if and how people vote. The karma a post earns when it is displayed based on current karma will be different from the karma a post earns when it is displayed based on predicted ~final karma.