In Fluent, Cruxy Predictions I’m arguing that it’s valuable to be not merely “capable” but “fluent” in:
figuring out what would actually change your decisions
operationalize it as an observable bet
make a Fatebook prediction about it, so that you can become more calibrated about your decisionmaking over time.
The third step is not that hard and there are nice tools to streamline it. But the first two steps are each pretty difficult.
But most of the nearterm value comes from #1, and vague hints of #2. The extra effort to turn #2 into something you can grade on Fatebook only pays off longerterm. So, I think probably you should focus on this before worrying too much about integrating Fatebook into your life.
TODO: Write a post called “Fluent Cruxfinding”.
In Fluent, Cruxy Predictions I’m arguing that it’s valuable to be not merely “capable” but “fluent” in:
figuring out what would actually change your decisions
operationalize it as an observable bet
make a Fatebook prediction about it, so that you can become more calibrated about your decisionmaking over time.
The third step is not that hard and there are nice tools to streamline it. But the first two steps are each pretty difficult.
But most of the nearterm value comes from #1, and vague hints of #2. The extra effort to turn #2 into something you can grade on Fatebook only pays off longerterm. So, I think probably you should focus on this before worrying too much about integrating Fatebook into your life.