How strongly Grabby aliens theory depends on the habitability of the planets near red drafts? I have read pretty good arguments that they will never become habitable. Two reasons: powerful magnetic explosions on red drafts will strip them of atmospheres and water; + the planets will become tidally locked soon and radioactive energy decay in cores will run out in a few billions years, so they will be geologically dead in 5-10 billions years.
The habitability of planets around longer lived stars is a crux for those using SSA, but not SIA or decision theoretic approaches with total utilitarianism.
I show in this section that if one is certain that there are planets habitable for at least 20Gy , then SSA with the reference class of observers in pre-grabby intelligent civilizations gives ~30% on us being alone in the observable universe. For 50Gy this gives ~10% on being alone.
How strongly Grabby aliens theory depends on the habitability of the planets near red drafts? I have read pretty good arguments that they will never become habitable. Two reasons: powerful magnetic explosions on red drafts will strip them of atmospheres and water; + the planets will become tidally locked soon and radioactive energy decay in cores will run out in a few billions years, so they will be geologically dead in 5-10 billions years.
The habitability of planets around longer lived stars is a crux for those using SSA, but not SIA or decision theoretic approaches with total utilitarianism.
I show in this section that if one is certain that there are planets habitable for at least 20 Gy , then SSA with the reference class of observers in pre-grabby intelligent civilizations gives ~30% on us being alone in the observable universe. For 50 Gy this gives ~10% on being alone.
Thanks!