First of all, IQ tests aren’t designed for high IQ, so there’s a lot of noise there and this would mainly be noise, if he correctly reported the results, which he doesn’t.
Second, there are some careful studies of high IQ (SMPY etc) by taking the well designed SAT test, which doesn’t have a very high ceiling for adults and giving it to children below the age of 13. By giving the test to representative samples, they can well characterize the threshold for the top 3%. Using self-selected samples, they think that they can characterize up to 1⁄10,000. In any event, within the 3% they find increasing SAT score predicts increasing probability of accomplishments of all kinds, in direct contradiction of these claims.
But they might work on children with high IQs because you can compare their performance to older children. A genius 8-year-old does as well as a typical 14-year old, whereas a super-genius 8-year-old does as well as a 16 year old.
But there is an assumption here, that childhood IQ predicts adult IQ. In fact, it isn’t very good at age 8. The SMPY age of 12 is better, though by no means perfect. When I say “good” or “better” I mean, of course, stability at the center, which might not predict stability at the tails. When SMPY finds that age 12 tests predict life outcomes, they are testing this directly. But what we really want to know is whether the SAT score at age 12 adds information to the low ceiling SAT score at age 17. I think that the SMPY results are strong enough to guarantee that, but I haven’t checked.
First of all, IQ tests aren’t designed for high IQ, so there’s a lot of noise there and this is probably mainly noise.
Indeed. If an IQ test claims to provide accurate scores outside of the 70 to 130 range, you should be suspicious.
There are so many misunderstandings about IQ in the general population, ranging from claims like “the average IQ is now x” (where x is different from 100), to claims of a famous scientist having had an IQ score over 200, and claims of “some scientists estimating” the IQ of a computer, an animal, or a fictional alien species. Or things as simple as claiming to calculate an IQ score based on a low number (usually less than 10) of trivia questions about basic geography and names of celebrities.
“the average IQ is now x” (where x is different from 100)
I think you are just being pedantic. When people say something like “the flynn effect has raised the average IQ has increased by 10 points over the last 50 years”, they mean that the average person would score 10 points higher on a 1950′s IQ test. See also the value of money, which also changes over time due to inflation. When people say “a dollar was worth more 50 years ago”, you don’t reply “nuh uh, a dollar has always been worth exactly one dollar.”
claims of “some scientists estimating” the IQ of a computer, an animal, or a fictional alien species.
I mean it’s impossible to do any kind of serious estimate. But I don’t think the idea of a linear scale of intelligence is inherently meaningless. So you could give a very rough estimate where nonhuman intelligences would fall on it, and where that would put them relative to humans with such and such IQ.
When people say “a dollar was worth more 50 years ago”, you don’t reply “nuh uh, a dollar has always been worth exactly one dollar.”
Yes, but “a dollar is now worth $x” where x is different from 1 is still meaningless unless you specify you’re talking about today’s dollar vs some other year’s dollar specifically.
That’s correct, but usually I don’t see that mistake made about IQ. On a handful of occasions I’ve seen someone say “we could raise the average IQ by 10 points” or something like that, and some pedant responds that “the average IQ must always be 100″. Which is technically correct, but misses the point. It makes it difficult to have discussions about IQ over time.
I think that the main accomplishments studied were degrees, advanced degrees, published academic articles articles, books published, and patents. I believe that they also looked at postdocs and professorships. The article only presented confused data on two professions: professors and physicians. MDs are a very good proxy for being a physician, so SMPY has that covered, too.
First of all, IQ tests aren’t designed for high IQ, so there’s a lot of noise there and this would mainly be noise, if he correctly reported the results, which he doesn’t.
Second, there are some careful studies of high IQ (SMPY etc) by taking the well designed SAT test, which doesn’t have a very high ceiling for adults and giving it to children below the age of 13. By giving the test to representative samples, they can well characterize the threshold for the top 3%. Using self-selected samples, they think that they can characterize up to 1⁄10,000. In any event, within the 3% they find increasing SAT score predicts increasing probability of accomplishments of all kinds, in direct contradiction of these claims.
But they might work on children with high IQs because you can compare their performance to older children. A genius 8-year-old does as well as a typical 14-year old, whereas a super-genius 8-year-old does as well as a 16 year old.
Doesn’t that sound like my second paragraph?
But there is an assumption here, that childhood IQ predicts adult IQ. In fact, it isn’t very good at age 8. The SMPY age of 12 is better, though by no means perfect. When I say “good” or “better” I mean, of course, stability at the center, which might not predict stability at the tails. When SMPY finds that age 12 tests predict life outcomes, they are testing this directly. But what we really want to know is whether the SAT score at age 12 adds information to the low ceiling SAT score at age 17. I think that the SMPY results are strong enough to guarantee that, but I haven’t checked.
Yes, my error.
For testing error/randomness reasons you would think so even independent of the low ceiling problem.
Indeed. If an IQ test claims to provide accurate scores outside of the 70 to 130 range, you should be suspicious.
There are so many misunderstandings about IQ in the general population, ranging from claims like “the average IQ is now x” (where x is different from 100), to claims of a famous scientist having had an IQ score over 200, and claims of “some scientists estimating” the IQ of a computer, an animal, or a fictional alien species. Or things as simple as claiming to calculate an IQ score based on a low number (usually less than 10) of trivia questions about basic geography and names of celebrities.
I think you are just being pedantic. When people say something like “the flynn effect has raised the average IQ has increased by 10 points over the last 50 years”, they mean that the average person would score 10 points higher on a 1950′s IQ test. See also the value of money, which also changes over time due to inflation. When people say “a dollar was worth more 50 years ago”, you don’t reply “nuh uh, a dollar has always been worth exactly one dollar.”
I mean it’s impossible to do any kind of serious estimate. But I don’t think the idea of a linear scale of intelligence is inherently meaningless. So you could give a very rough estimate where nonhuman intelligences would fall on it, and where that would put them relative to humans with such and such IQ.
Yes, but “a dollar is now worth $x” where x is different from 1 is still meaningless unless you specify you’re talking about today’s dollar vs some other year’s dollar specifically.
That’s correct, but usually I don’t see that mistake made about IQ. On a handful of occasions I’ve seen someone say “we could raise the average IQ by 10 points” or something like that, and some pedant responds that “the average IQ must always be 100″. Which is technically correct, but misses the point. It makes it difficult to have discussions about IQ over time.
Accomplishments?
Did that include being a part of an elite profession?
I think the original article said that smart people accomplished more in a profession, though they were in appropriately excluded.
I think that the main accomplishments studied were degrees, advanced degrees, published academic articles articles, books published, and patents. I believe that they also looked at postdocs and professorships. The article only presented confused data on two professions: professors and physicians. MDs are a very good proxy for being a physician, so SMPY has that covered, too.