One estimation is based on the straight extrapolation of the exponential growth of the infected people number, which doubles every two days. This implies that the whole population of Earth will be ill in March. Another view takes into account that many mild cases are not included in the stat, so lethality is small and probably not everybody will be ill at all. We just don’t know yet.
Both of these estimates wildly exaggerate the risk. Why in the world would we expect exponential growth to continue? Rather than “probably not everybody will be ill,” our baseline should be “a few people will be ill,” because that’s what has been the case with almost all other epidemics.
If you don’t live in China and are not planning to go to China soon, the appropriate course of action is to do nothing.
Both of these estimates wildly exaggerate the risk. Why in the world would we expect exponential growth to continue? Rather than “probably not everybody will be ill,” our baseline should be “a few people will be ill,” because that’s what has been the case with almost all other epidemics.
If you don’t live in China and are not planning to go to China soon, the appropriate course of action is to do nothing.
Currently going to Japan with a layover in Taiwan. Any advice there?
I would use medical gloves, underwater glasses, two levels of masks.
Edited: in fact, I would not go.