@niplav I see you’ve reacted with “<1%”. Are you willing to bet about this? (We could resolve based on “there is reasonably credible evidence that GPT-5 shares a substantial fraction of it’s training with 4o”. Credible evidence isn’t guaranteed, but I think there is a decent chance this will come out.)
My real probability is something like 4%-5% (I initially reacted with both <1% and with 10%, not reverting to that), but there was no great react for that. I don’t feel like betting on that, but let me think about it. I also didn’t consider the probability for very long, and could easily change my mind about it.
@niplav I see you’ve reacted with “<1%”. Are you willing to bet about this? (We could resolve based on “there is reasonably credible evidence that GPT-5 shares a substantial fraction of it’s training with 4o”. Credible evidence isn’t guaranteed, but I think there is a decent chance this will come out.)
My real probability is something like 4%-5% (I initially reacted with both <1% and with 10%, not reverting to that), but there was no great react for that. I don’t feel like betting on that, but let me think about it. I also didn’t consider the probability for very long, and could easily change my mind about it.