Yeah this is the primary argument pushing me toward thinking there shouldn’t be a finite-time singularity, as I mentioned I’m not confident. It does feel pretty crazy that a limits-of-intelligence ASI would have a (very large horizon) time horizon at which it has 0.00001% reliability though, which I think is unavoidable if we accept the trend.
I think how things behave might depend to some extent on how you define an achieved time horizon; if there is a cost/speed requirement, then it becomes more plausible that longer horizon lengths would either have ~the same or lower reliability / success rate as smaller ones, once the AI surpasses humans in long-horizon agency. Similar to how if we created a version of HCAST but flipped based on AI times, then at a fixed speed budget human “reliability” might increase at higher time horizons, because our advantage is in long horizon agency and not speed.
In general things seem potentially sensitive to definitional choices and I don’t feel like I’ve got things fully figured out in terms of what the behavior in the limit should be.
Yeah this is the primary argument pushing me toward thinking there shouldn’t be a finite-time singularity, as I mentioned I’m not confident. It does feel pretty crazy that a limits-of-intelligence ASI would have a (very large horizon) time horizon at which it has 0.00001% reliability though, which I think is unavoidable if we accept the trend.
I think how things behave might depend to some extent on how you define an achieved time horizon; if there is a cost/speed requirement, then it becomes more plausible that longer horizon lengths would either have ~the same or lower reliability / success rate as smaller ones, once the AI surpasses humans in long-horizon agency. Similar to how if we created a version of HCAST but flipped based on AI times, then at a fixed speed budget human “reliability” might increase at higher time horizons, because our advantage is in long horizon agency and not speed.
In general things seem potentially sensitive to definitional choices and I don’t feel like I’ve got things fully figured out in terms of what the behavior in the limit should be.