I’m not sure why you think that market incentives such as customer preference are ~3x more likely to find techniques that work than default incentives such as “we don’t want these things to kill us”.
The lowest level techniques in your list are being applied by researchers who still have the incentive to create AGI that won’t kill themselves and others, even in the absence of market forces or government enforcement. You give this a 15% credence of being sufficient. Then your estimate for adding market incentives to that yields an additional 30% credence (for a total of 45%) of being sufficient.
I’m not sure why you think that market incentives such as customer preference are ~3x more likely to find techniques that work than default incentives such as “we don’t want these things to kill us”.
I’m not seeing how you are drawing that from my numbers
The lowest level techniques in your list are being applied by researchers who still have the incentive to create AGI that won’t kill themselves and others, even in the absence of market forces or government enforcement. You give this a 15% credence of being sufficient. Then your estimate for adding market incentives to that yields an additional 30% credence (for a total of 45%) of being sufficient.