The lowest level techniques in your list are being applied by researchers who still have the incentive to create AGI that won’t kill themselves and others, even in the absence of market forces or government enforcement. You give this a 15% credence of being sufficient. Then your estimate for adding market incentives to that yields an additional 30% credence (for a total of 45%) of being sufficient.
The lowest level techniques in your list are being applied by researchers who still have the incentive to create AGI that won’t kill themselves and others, even in the absence of market forces or government enforcement. You give this a 15% credence of being sufficient. Then your estimate for adding market incentives to that yields an additional 30% credence (for a total of 45%) of being sufficient.