I do, though maybe not this extreme. Roughly every other day I bemoan the fact that AIs aren’t misaligned yet (limiting the excitingness of my current research) and might not even be misaligned in future, before reminding myself our world is much better to live in than the alternative. I think there’s not much else to do with a similar impact given how large even a 1% p(doom) reduction is. But I also believe that particularly good research now can trade 1:1 with crunch time.
Theoretical work is just another step removed from the problem and should be viewed with at least as much suspicion.
I like your emphasis on good research. I agree that the best current research does probably trade 1:1 with crunch time.
I think we should apply the same qualification to theoretical research. Well-directed theory is highly useful; poorly-directed theory is almost useless in expectation.
I think theory directed specifically at LLM-based takeover-capable systems is neglected, possibly in part because empiricists focused on LLMs distrust theory, while theorists tend to dislike messy LLMs.
I do, though maybe not this extreme. Roughly every other day I bemoan the fact that AIs aren’t misaligned yet (limiting the excitingness of my current research) and might not even be misaligned in future, before reminding myself our world is much better to live in than the alternative. I think there’s not much else to do with a similar impact given how large even a 1% p(doom) reduction is. But I also believe that particularly good research now can trade 1:1 with crunch time.
Theoretical work is just another step removed from the problem and should be viewed with at least as much suspicion.
I like your emphasis on good research. I agree that the best current research does probably trade 1:1 with crunch time.
I think we should apply the same qualification to theoretical research. Well-directed theory is highly useful; poorly-directed theory is almost useless in expectation.
I think theory directed specifically at LLM-based takeover-capable systems is neglected, possibly in part because empiricists focused on LLMs distrust theory, while theorists tend to dislike messy LLMs.