An earthquake is 0.8 likely to set off your burglar alarm; a burglar is 0.9 likely to set off your burglar alarm. And—we can’t compute this model fully without this info—the combination of a burglar and an earthquake is 0.95 likely to set off the alarm;
I don’t think that true. The earthquake can cause the burgler to have less control over his own movement and therefore increase the chance that he triggers the alarm.
I don’t think this matters too much to the main point, but if you like, you can imagine that with a 0.05 probability the alarm is incorrectly wired and will not go off no matter what happens.
I don’t think that true. The earthquake can cause the burgler to have less control over his own movement and therefore increase the chance that he triggers the alarm.
I don’t think this matters too much to the main point, but if you like, you can imagine that with a 0.05 probability the alarm is incorrectly wired and will not go off no matter what happens.