gpt3 has been an agi the entire time and it’s frustrating that people move the goalposts; it should have been obvious that agi comes before hlmi because obviously generality is easier than human level, and we have had proof for a while. but anyway, whatever, yes, we don’t have superhuman-at-everything ai yet because that was obviously going to take a lot longer. my expectation was that we’d be able to reach human level this year, and afaict the only reason we haven’t is because deepmind hasn’t made a gato-palm-matmul-speedup rainbow agent yet.
though of course, causality is hard, and even human level isn’t superintelligence. robotics is a lot harder than mere “do everything a human does” generality, you also have to be able to do everything a human does in physical context, which is a heavily training data limited problem, and requires human level generality of from scratch learning, not merely human level generality * human level capability.
gpt3 has been an agi the entire time and it’s frustrating that people move the goalposts; it should have been obvious that agi comes before hlmi because obviously generality is easier than human level, and we have had proof for a while. but anyway, whatever, yes, we don’t have superhuman-at-everything ai yet because that was obviously going to take a lot longer. my expectation was that we’d be able to reach human level this year, and afaict the only reason we haven’t is because deepmind hasn’t made a gato-palm-matmul-speedup rainbow agent yet.
though of course, causality is hard, and even human level isn’t superintelligence. robotics is a lot harder than mere “do everything a human does” generality, you also have to be able to do everything a human does in physical context, which is a heavily training data limited problem, and requires human level generality of from scratch learning, not merely human level generality * human level capability.