Pascal’s mugging never was very compelling to me (unlike counterfactual weird-causality problems, which are interesting). It seems so trivial to assign a probability of follow-through that scales downward with the offered payoff. If I expect the mugger to have a chance of paying that’s less than 1/n, for any n they name, I don’t take the bet. If I bothered, I’d probably figure out where the logarithm goes that makes it not quite linear (it starts pretty small, and goes down to a limit of 0, staying well below 1/n at all times), but it’s not worth the bother.
Pascal’s mugging never was very compelling to me (unlike counterfactual weird-causality problems, which are interesting). It seems so trivial to assign a probability of follow-through that scales downward with the offered payoff. If I expect the mugger to have a chance of paying that’s less than 1/n, for any n they name, I don’t take the bet. If I bothered, I’d probably figure out where the logarithm goes that makes it not quite linear (it starts pretty small, and goes down to a limit of 0, staying well below 1/n at all times), but it’s not worth the bother.