My timelines for ADI are essentially the same as for ADI, since I strongly expect the types of ADI that happen in practice to be AGI.
When I examine the examples you gave of ADI in more detail than presented here, I find that there are almost certainly many intermediate tasks in them that require AGI or something very close to it. PoliticalBot seems like the only one that stands a chance without something close to AGI, via acting as a parasite on humanity’s more general intelligence.
My timelines for ADI are essentially the same as for ADI, since I strongly expect the types of ADI that happen in practice to be AGI.
When I examine the examples you gave of ADI in more detail than presented here, I find that there are almost certainly many intermediate tasks in them that require AGI or something very close to it. PoliticalBot seems like the only one that stands a chance without something close to AGI, via acting as a parasite on humanity’s more general intelligence.
I mean, how many of them could create works of art?