Currently, the answer that seems most plausible to me is an AGI that is (a) within the narrow range I described, and (b) willing to take a gamble for some reason—perhaps, given its values and situation, it has little to gain from biding its time. So it makes an escape-and-conquest attempt even though it knows it only has a 1% chance of success; it gets part of the way to victory and then fails. I think I’d assign, like, 5% credence to something like this happening.
Currently, the answer that seems most plausible to me is an AGI that is (a) within the narrow range I described, and (b) willing to take a gamble for some reason—perhaps, given its values and situation, it has little to gain from biding its time. So it makes an escape-and-conquest attempt even though it knows it only has a 1% chance of success; it gets part of the way to victory and then fails. I think I’d assign, like, 5% credence to something like this happening.