What’s the story for why we would have an advantage here? Surely quants who specialize in this area are on top of this, and aren’t constrained by capital? Unlike previous trades where rationalists made lots of money (Covid short, ETH presale, etc.), this doesn’t look like a really weird thing that the pros would be unable to do with sufficient volume.
It’s a relatively new situation, that nobody has much experience with. Until recently, the FTC and DOJ only brought lawsuits against proposed mergers that were much more obviously illegal, so nobody specialized in or is experienced with making bets against the government in cases like this.
What’s the story for why we would have an advantage here? Surely quants who specialize in this area are on top of this, and aren’t constrained by capital? Unlike previous trades where rationalists made lots of money (Covid short, ETH presale, etc.), this doesn’t look like a really weird thing that the pros would be unable to do with sufficient volume.
It’s a relatively new situation, that nobody has much experience with. Until recently, the FTC and DOJ only brought lawsuits against proposed mergers that were much more obviously illegal, so nobody specialized in or is experienced with making bets against the government in cases like this.
There was a recent podcast about this.