I agree w/ your general point, but think your specific example isn’t considering the counterfactual. The possible choices aren’t usually:
A. 50/50% chance of death/utopia B. 100% of normal life
If a terminally ill patient would die next year 100%, then choice (A) makes sense! Most people aren’t terminally ill patients though. In expectation, 1% of the people you know will die every year (w/ skewing towards older people). So a 50% of death vs utopia shouldn’t be preferred by most people, & they should accept a delay of 1 year of utopia for >1% reduction in x-risk.[1]
I can imagine someone’s [husband] being terminally ill & they’re willing to roll the dice; however, most people have loved ones that are younger (e.g. (great)-children, nephews/nieces, siblings, etc) which would require them to value their [husband] vastly greater than everyone else.[2]
However, folks could be short-sighted. Thinking to minimize the suffering of their loved one in front of them, w/o considering the negative effects of their other loved ones. This isn’t utility function relevant, just a better understanding of the situation.
I agree w/ your general point, but think your specific example isn’t considering the counterfactual. The possible choices aren’t usually:
A. 50/50% chance of death/utopia
B. 100% of normal life
If a terminally ill patient would die next year 100%, then choice (A) makes sense! Most people aren’t terminally ill patients though. In expectation, 1% of the people you know will die every year (w/ skewing towards older people). So a 50% of death vs utopia shouldn’t be preferred by most people, & they should accept a delay of 1 year of utopia for >1% reduction in x-risk.[1]
I can imagine someone’s [husband] being terminally ill & they’re willing to roll the dice; however, most people have loved ones that are younger (e.g. (great)-children, nephews/nieces, siblings, etc) which would require them to value their [husband] vastly greater than everyone else.[2]
However if normal life is net-negative, then either death or utopia would be preferred, changing the decision. This is also a minority though.
However, folks could be short-sighted. Thinking to minimize the suffering of their loved one in front of them, w/o considering the negative effects of their other loved ones. This isn’t utility function relevant, just a better understanding of the situation.