A child is supposed to be transported to another town in a car by his father. His family has two cars. The first is a blue electric car with 3 passenger seats. The second car is red with only 1 passager seat and works on gas. Which car should the child expect to find themself in with which probability?
There can be possible situations where the information about the number of seats, the color of the car or its tipe of engine is relevant. Maybe his father like the color red more? Or maybe there is a law against transporting a child on a front seat? Maybe electric car isn’t charged? Maybe childs father determined which seat to put him through random sample among all four seats? Maybe the father cares about environment and doesn’t use the gas car anymore?
But if the child doesn’t know anything about in which situation they are, anything about the actual causal process which would put them in the car, if all the information they have is just the fact that there are two cars with different characteristics, then the naive answer: 1⁄2 for every car due to the equiprobable prior is correct and any attempt to persuade themselves that “universe cares more” about red cars or cars with more seats, without having any evidence, is plain wrong.
A child is supposed to be transported to another town in a car by his father. His family has two cars. The first is a blue electric car with 3 passenger seats. The second car is red with only 1 passager seat and works on gas. Which car should the child expect to find themself in with which probability?
There can be possible situations where the information about the number of seats, the color of the car or its tipe of engine is relevant. Maybe his father like the color red more? Or maybe there is a law against transporting a child on a front seat? Maybe electric car isn’t charged? Maybe childs father determined which seat to put him through random sample among all four seats? Maybe the father cares about environment and doesn’t use the gas car anymore?
But if the child doesn’t know anything about in which situation they are, anything about the actual causal process which would put them in the car, if all the information they have is just the fact that there are two cars with different characteristics, then the naive answer: 1⁄2 for every car due to the equiprobable prior is correct and any attempt to persuade themselves that “universe cares more” about red cars or cars with more seats, without having any evidence, is plain wrong.