My understanding is that a few months after vaccination the vaccines provide ~85% (?) protection against hospitalisation compared to an unvaccinated person.
I think the 2.5% prediction is intended to indicate that Zvi thinks it’s highly unlikely that this will drop to 20% protection from Omicron (or similarly low number). However even a drop to 70% (which seems more reasonable) would mean a doubling of hospitalisations per case.
Even with this, my model of a crisis situation is more to do with a huge increase in infections than with increasing hospitalisation rates per case.
My understanding is that a few months after vaccination the vaccines provide ~85% (?) protection against hospitalisation compared to an unvaccinated person.
I think the 2.5% prediction is intended to indicate that Zvi thinks it’s highly unlikely that this will drop to 20% protection from Omicron (or similarly low number). However even a drop to 70% (which seems more reasonable) would mean a doubling of hospitalisations per case.
Even with this, my model of a crisis situation is more to do with a huge increase in infections than with increasing hospitalisation rates per case.