Yeah, I’m starting with this part of your response because I agree and think it is good to have clear messaging on the most unambiguously one-directional (“guilty or not”) pieces of evidence.
That’s a cool conversational move! Appreciate it.
What shouldn’t happen is that onlookers give someone a pass because of reasoning that goes as follows:
Agree. When I wrote the post, I was thinking more of a case where someone does respond to the object-level claims but in a defensive way or with non-object-level arguments mixed in, not of a case where they entirely fail to present object-level-arguments.
Basically, the asymmetry is that innocent people can often (though not always) disclose information voluntarily that makes their innocence more clear/likely. That’s the best strategy if it is available to you. It is never available to guilty people, but sometimes available to innocent people.
I suspect we might disagree on exactly how frequently this strategy is available to innocent people. I do agree that it is sometimes available to innocent people, but there are also lots of situations where e.g. the innocent person can’t offer any solid evidence that their version of the story is the correct one, or where they have some other reason not to share the full truth (e.g. protecting someone else’s privacy or truth-telling requiring them to reveal something unrelated that they are embarrassed by or have a legal obligation not to reveal), or where the truth is complicated or unusual enough that third parties might not believe it, etc.
Also, as long as the innocents are not fully convincing, many people might go “I can’t tell who is telling the truth here so just out of caution I’ll distrust everyone involved”, which gives even innocent people a motive to leverage whatever extra weapons they have to increase the chances of being believed (or equivalently, the accuser not being believed).
Justifiably accused “problem people” will almost always attempt counterattacks in one form or another (if not calling into question the accuser’s character, then at least their mental health and sanity) because they work so well as deflection.
Agree. But a relevant question is, do innocent people attempt counterattacks at a significantly lower rate? If both innocent and guilty people are roughly equally likely to attempt counterattacks, then just the presence of a counterattack isn’t strong evidence. And as long as a counterattack is not less effective for an innocent person, you’d expect both innocent and guilty people to have a similar incentive to launch them.
WRT your last paragraph, I agree with your examples and think the difference probably comes from us thinking about different kinds of examples.
But a relevant question is, do innocent people attempt counterattacks at a significantly lower rate? If both innocent and guilty people are roughly equally likely to attempt counterattacks, then just the presence of a counterattack isn’t strong evidence.
In movies and series it happens a bunch that people find themselves accused of something due to silly coincidences, as this ramps up the drama. In real life, such coincidences or huge misunderstandings presumably happen very infrequently, so when someone in real life gets accused of serious wrongdoing, it is usually the case that either they are guilty, or their accusers have a biased agenda.
This logic would suggest that you’re right about counterattacks being ~equally frequent.
Perhaps once we go from being accused of serious wrongdoing to something more like “being accused of being a kind of bad manager,” misunderstandings, such as that the “accuser” just happened to see you on a bad day, become more plausible. In that case, operating from a perspective of “the accuser is reasonable and this can be cleared up with a conversation rather than by counterattacking them” is something we should expect to see more often from actually “innocent” managers. (Of course, unlike with serious transgressions/wrongdoing, being a “kind of bad” manager is more of a spectrum, and part of being a good manager is being open to feedback and willingness to work on improving onself, etc., so these situations are also more disanalogous for additional reasons.)
That’s a cool conversational move! Appreciate it.
Agree. When I wrote the post, I was thinking more of a case where someone does respond to the object-level claims but in a defensive way or with non-object-level arguments mixed in, not of a case where they entirely fail to present object-level-arguments.
I suspect we might disagree on exactly how frequently this strategy is available to innocent people. I do agree that it is sometimes available to innocent people, but there are also lots of situations where e.g. the innocent person can’t offer any solid evidence that their version of the story is the correct one, or where they have some other reason not to share the full truth (e.g. protecting someone else’s privacy or truth-telling requiring them to reveal something unrelated that they are embarrassed by or have a legal obligation not to reveal), or where the truth is complicated or unusual enough that third parties might not believe it, etc.
Also, as long as the innocents are not fully convincing, many people might go “I can’t tell who is telling the truth here so just out of caution I’ll distrust everyone involved”, which gives even innocent people a motive to leverage whatever extra weapons they have to increase the chances of being believed (or equivalently, the accuser not being believed).
Agree. But a relevant question is, do innocent people attempt counterattacks at a significantly lower rate? If both innocent and guilty people are roughly equally likely to attempt counterattacks, then just the presence of a counterattack isn’t strong evidence. And as long as a counterattack is not less effective for an innocent person, you’d expect both innocent and guilty people to have a similar incentive to launch them.
WRT your last paragraph, I agree with your examples and think the difference probably comes from us thinking about different kinds of examples.
In movies and series it happens a bunch that people find themselves accused of something due to silly coincidences, as this ramps up the drama. In real life, such coincidences or huge misunderstandings presumably happen very infrequently, so when someone in real life gets accused of serious wrongdoing, it is usually the case that either they are guilty, or their accusers have a biased agenda.
This logic would suggest that you’re right about counterattacks being ~equally frequent.
Perhaps once we go from being accused of serious wrongdoing to something more like “being accused of being a kind of bad manager,” misunderstandings, such as that the “accuser” just happened to see you on a bad day, become more plausible. In that case, operating from a perspective of “the accuser is reasonable and this can be cleared up with a conversation rather than by counterattacking them” is something we should expect to see more often from actually “innocent” managers. (Of course, unlike with serious transgressions/wrongdoing, being a “kind of bad” manager is more of a spectrum, and part of being a good manager is being open to feedback and willingness to work on improving onself, etc., so these situations are also more disanalogous for additional reasons.)