One way of checking your 6% is by doing Laplace succession on the METR trend:
Application of Laplace’s rule gets us a an 11% probability on any dramatic upwards trend break above METR’s curve. Your interpretation of Anthropic’s prediction for 2027 is compatible with this prediction since the 11% is an upper bound, and 6% of that mass being at least as high as your Anthropic prediction seems plausible.
In detail, probability of trend break by early-2027 via applying Laplace’s rule of succession: METR has observed 6 years of an exponential fit holding this gives us a per-year point-estimate parameter p=7/8 that the trend will continue to hold. Roughly 22% of going off trend over the next two years, and if half of that mass is via upward deviation we get 11%.
I’m sure there’s fancier statistics to be done here, but I’d guess anything reasonable gets us order of magnitude around 11%.
One way of checking your 6% is by doing Laplace succession on the METR trend:
Application of Laplace’s rule gets us a an 11% probability on any dramatic upwards trend break above METR’s curve. Your interpretation of Anthropic’s prediction for 2027 is compatible with this prediction since the 11% is an upper bound, and 6% of that mass being at least as high as your Anthropic prediction seems plausible.
In detail, probability of trend break by early-2027 via applying Laplace’s rule of succession: METR has observed 6 years of an exponential fit holding this gives us a per-year point-estimate parameter p=7/8 that the trend will continue to hold. Roughly 22% of going off trend over the next two years, and if half of that mass is via upward deviation we get 11%.
I’m sure there’s fancier statistics to be done here, but I’d guess anything reasonable gets us order of magnitude around 11%.