1988? The year before it skyrockets, somewhere in 87-89, looks to me the same as 1980. Are we talking about crack or not? That was way too abrupt to blame on lead, especially because it hit 14-17 and 18-24 simultaneously. I’d prefer to stay far away from crack, at 1980 or even the previous peak of 1975.
I suppose that you could have a much more complicated theory that lead makes people more susceptible to drug fads and gang wars, which is why the data is noisier than it used to be. But that’s a very different theory that cannot be tested by simple lagged regressions. And I think that the noise is only in America.
When people say “abortion reduced crime” they’re referring to Levitt’s theory that it produced individuals that are less criminal. Of course, that isn’t the theory that he tested, something that you can’t tell from his paper. The question of whether abortion reduced total fertility is controversial. I suppose that the claim that abortion lengthened generation time is not controversial. Anyhow, abortion is a drop in the bucket of demographic change.
1988? The year before it skyrockets, somewhere in 87-89, looks to me the same as 1980. Are we talking about crack or not? That was way too abrupt to blame on lead, especially because it hit 14-17 and 18-24 simultaneously. I’d prefer to stay far away from crack, at 1980 or even the previous peak of 1975.
I suppose that you could have a much more complicated theory that lead makes people more susceptible to drug fads and gang wars, which is why the data is noisier than it used to be. But that’s a very different theory that cannot be tested by simple lagged regressions. And I think that the noise is only in America.
When people say “abortion reduced crime” they’re referring to Levitt’s theory that it produced individuals that are less criminal. Of course, that isn’t the theory that he tested, something that you can’t tell from his paper. The question of whether abortion reduced total fertility is controversial. I suppose that the claim that abortion lengthened generation time is not controversial. Anyhow, abortion is a drop in the bucket of demographic change.
Hmm, that’s a good set of points. So it really does look very hard to explain what was going on and lead doesn’t look like it has enough data.
Having discussions with you has to be one of my favorite things on LW because whenever I do, I find out that I’m probably wrong about something.
I guess I should more often post evidence agreeing with people.