But users with self-reported IQ > 150 may have outperformed everyone else. This result needs many caveats: it was sensitive to cutoff points, self-reported IQs are unreliable, and sample sizes were low. Still, these people did almost as well as superforecasters, an impressive performance.
How many users with self-reported IQ >150 were in the data set?
There were 14 -- but they did so well that it’s unlikely to have been by chance: the p-value is 0.0002 (i.e. the probability of IQ >150 people having gotten such a large percentile conditioned on their true skill levels being distributed like the entire population is only 0.02%).
How many users with self-reported IQ >150 were in the data set?
There were 14 -- but they did so well that it’s unlikely to have been by chance: the p-value is 0.0002 (i.e. the probability of IQ >150 people having gotten such a large percentile conditioned on their true skill levels being distributed like the entire population is only 0.02%).