I think I agree with your premises here, but my conclusion is that our predictions will be weakly correlated with reality and our best plans will have a 55% or 51% success rate, not that they will have no effect or negative effect.
There no reason to assume that messing with a complex system that you don’t understand means that you will have on average a 50% success rate.
There are many cases where trying to push a complex system into a local optima might have bad consequences. The system might get more robust but lose resiliency.
I think I agree with your premises here, but my conclusion is that our predictions will be weakly correlated with reality and our best plans will have a 55% or 51% success rate, not that they will have no effect or negative effect.
There no reason to assume that messing with a complex system that you don’t understand means that you will have on average a 50% success rate.
There are many cases where trying to push a complex system into a local optima might have bad consequences. The system might get more robust but lose resiliency.