Yup, here is a roundup of recent “is stagnation over?” commentary: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-roundup
I would like to address / reply to this soon.
I like Noah Smith and enjoyed that post, but I’m not sure I agree with the conclusions. I think I agree more with the critique from Applied Divinity Studies than I do with Noah. There are definitely areas for optimism, but I haven’t seen anything that looks like we’re actually getting increases in productivity growth in the US or similar countries. Moreover, I have seen no indications that cost disease has slowed (see healthcare costs for example, other than the decrease in care due to COVID lockdowns, there’s no real evidence of a slowdown). And beyond all that, the ineffective response to COVID in the US has shown just how badly our state capacity for effectively confronting problems has deteriorated.
I would really, really like stagnation to be over (and I do my best to support to efforts to make that happen!), but I don’t yet feel very hopeful.
I’m not convinced by the optimists, either, and ADS made some good points. This post was laying the foundation for my response. With this framework I think you can analyze things in at least a slightly more rigorous way.