Well, the general answer is, as usual, “it depends”. If you are talking about your prior before any offer-specific information, I think it should be pretty low. Once you’ve heard the offer and, maybe, looked a bit into it, the prior isn’t very relevant any more, presumably you have a bunch of information/evidence at this point which should weigh in more heavily than the prior.
If the evidence is not very strong either way, the prior is relevant. (Which seems to be the case in the one I’m trying to find out about.) It seemed to me that the two groups in the debate had different priors, and that’s why they were arguing (each trying to shift the burden of proof, for example.)
Recall the old poker wisdom: every game has a mark. If you are sitting in a poker game and you don’t know who the mark is, chance are it’s you.
Are you trying to say epsilon? I think it’s higher than that, if only because only semi-believable offers are likely to be made in the first place.
Also, all those calculations are done after the prior. Perhaps I should have included how well I understand the business model in the list of factors?
Well, the general answer is, as usual, “it depends”. If you are talking about your prior before any offer-specific information, I think it should be pretty low. Once you’ve heard the offer and, maybe, looked a bit into it, the prior isn’t very relevant any more, presumably you have a bunch of information/evidence at this point which should weigh in more heavily than the prior.
If the evidence is not very strong either way, the prior is relevant. (Which seems to be the case in the one I’m trying to find out about.) It seemed to me that the two groups in the debate had different priors, and that’s why they were arguing (each trying to shift the burden of proof, for example.)