So, to summarize: Systems are a mix of a steady state plus exogenous shocks (disasters and whalefalls and sideways shifts); and within each system and subsystem, there is some balance of competition (Moloch) and slack (Elua). Steady state favors those which are most competitive, while shocks favor those with the most slack. More frequent, larger, and more varied types of shocks favor Elua, while less frequent, smaller and more predictable types of shocks favor Moloch. Since the world’s rate of change and weirdness of changes has recently increased, slack are favored; under a narrative of increasing rate of technological progress, slack will continue being more favored over time.
There’s a big caveat, though, which is that in the long run, only those types of slack which can be deployed to respond to shocks count. This means that interconvertibility of stocks and flows is very bad, and that anything which can be sacrificed permanently during a temporary shock is very much at risk.
User feedback to Zvi: I skimmed the first half of the post and then quit because it seemed to be just reiterating standard Moloch stuff. But this comment excited me a lot and now makes me want to read the post again to get more detailed models behind Jim’s summary.
Jacob: Good feedback. I will note that I think there’s a lot of ‘yes, you know this already’ here in your case especially in the first half. I need the background for later (and even for the later part of this post).
So, to summarize: Systems are a mix of a steady state plus exogenous shocks (disasters and whalefalls and sideways shifts); and within each system and subsystem, there is some balance of competition (Moloch) and slack (Elua). Steady state favors those which are most competitive, while shocks favor those with the most slack. More frequent, larger, and more varied types of shocks favor Elua, while less frequent, smaller and more predictable types of shocks favor Moloch. Since the world’s rate of change and weirdness of changes has recently increased, slack are favored; under a narrative of increasing rate of technological progress, slack will continue being more favored over time.
There’s a big caveat, though, which is that in the long run, only those types of slack which can be deployed to respond to shocks count. This means that interconvertibility of stocks and flows is very bad, and that anything which can be sacrificed permanently during a temporary shock is very much at risk.
User feedback to Zvi: I skimmed the first half of the post and then quit because it seemed to be just reiterating standard Moloch stuff. But this comment excited me a lot and now makes me want to read the post again to get more detailed models behind Jim’s summary.
Jacob: Good feedback. I will note that I think there’s a lot of ‘yes, you know this already’ here in your case especially in the first half. I need the background for later (and even for the later part of this post).