Michio Kaku suggested the idea that Moore’s law will be modified within the next decade to follow the deceleration of improvements in silicone,
and within 20 years computational silicone technologies will relatively flat-line, as we reach the peak of silicone computational potential.
I believe in that Moore’s law modeling silicone improvement will collapse in 20 years. (~78%)
We are already seeing deceleration Moore’s curve modeling computational power because silicone wafers are already being printed in three dimensions, and dealing with the heat of in increasing number of electrons while the size of the silicone material stays the same is becoming more of a challenge.
Downvoted on a technicality. I think that as we reach the limits of what silicon can do for us, Moore’s law will continue via some other kind of technology.
Upvoted because 20 years seems way too long. Interestingly, Kaku predicted the end of Moore’s law for silicon “in 20 years” back in 2003. 2023 seems more likely to me than 2032.
However this is only true if you are applying “Moore’s Law” in the stricter sense, which by definition only refers to silicon. These days “Moore’s Law” is usually used to refer more broadly to increases in cost-performance for commercially available computers. My guess is that shortly after Moore’s law for silicon starts flatlining, something else (probably molecular computers built around graphene will become available. It is far from obvious that the new substrate will improve at the same steady pace and overall speed as Moore’s Law for silicone. It could go much faster or much slower, possibly in fits and starts as opposed to steady, gradual process as we’ve seen for decades.
Downvoted because of this “I believe in that Moore’s law modeling silicone improvement will collapse in 20 years” but I would have upvoted instead if you had said that the collapse would be in the direction of flatlining within 20 years.
Michio Kaku suggested the idea that Moore’s law will be modified within the next decade to follow the deceleration of improvements in silicone, and within 20 years computational silicone technologies will relatively flat-line, as we reach the peak of silicone computational potential.
I believe in that Moore’s law modeling silicone improvement will collapse in 20 years. (~78%)
We are already seeing deceleration Moore’s curve modeling computational power because silicone wafers are already being printed in three dimensions, and dealing with the heat of in increasing number of electrons while the size of the silicone material stays the same is becoming more of a challenge.
Shouldn’t that be silicon rather than silicone?
Sometimes people make it easy to know whether they have any domain expertise.
No, breast implants double in size every 18 months.
Downvoted on a technicality. I think that as we reach the limits of what silicon can do for us, Moore’s law will continue via some other kind of technology.
Upvoted because 20 years seems way too long. Interestingly, Kaku predicted the end of Moore’s law for silicon “in 20 years” back in 2003. 2023 seems more likely to me than 2032.
However this is only true if you are applying “Moore’s Law” in the stricter sense, which by definition only refers to silicon. These days “Moore’s Law” is usually used to refer more broadly to increases in cost-performance for commercially available computers. My guess is that shortly after Moore’s law for silicon starts flatlining, something else (probably molecular computers built around graphene will become available. It is far from obvious that the new substrate will improve at the same steady pace and overall speed as Moore’s Law for silicone. It could go much faster or much slower, possibly in fits and starts as opposed to steady, gradual process as we’ve seen for decades.
Downvoted because of this “I believe in that Moore’s law modeling silicone improvement will collapse in 20 years” but I would have upvoted instead if you had said that the collapse would be in the direction of flatlining within 20 years.